Atlas observes the global engine
The architecture of global capital and the world economy remain subordinate to
movements in the US economy. Global markets are vulnerable to uncertainty and exposed to sudden
fluctuations. The goal is to track data and stay ahead of the unknown.
Rising unemployment, persistent inflation and weak productivity could lead to stagflation. A structural
recession and the resulting transfer of risk to the global economy would be immediate, affecting
everything from commodities and equities to capital flows.
The Atlas Dashboard composite score offers a simple, transparent rounded measure of systemic risk to quantify potential
threats.
The atlas methodology
Atlas is a macroeconomic engine that uses AI to perform data synthesis, not just generate content. Atlas calculates systemic risk in real-time by processing data retrieved via API. Atlas uses AI to audit data points and identify hidden correlations in market leverage and liquidity. AI is prescribed a schema of specific data points to analyse against a broad literature review rather than just generate generic financial advice. The result is institutional grade analysis built on hard math to provide users with a defensive edge.
Atlas tracks macro and micro market indicators. Each indicator is checked against its own pre-defined thresholds and assigned an individually weighted risk score. An aggregate composite score (Max 25.0) is generated to provide institutional investors with a clear, actionable guide for tactical defense.
Score weighting
| Category | Risk Pts | Analytical Role |
|---|---|---|
| Macro indicators | 1.0 — 2.0 | Structural drivers such as Yields, Credit Spreads, and Liquidity. These represent primary systemic risks. |
| Micro indicators | 0.5 — 1.5 | Tactical early-warning triggers like Sentiment ratios and Index pivots. Represents high-velocity risk signals. |
Threshold logic (RAG)
| Status | Score impact | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| GREEN | 0.0 | Stability. Data within historical norms. Base case stability. |
| AMBER | 0.5 — 1.0 | Caution. Initial breach of monitoring thresholds. Elevated systemic stress detected. |
| RED | 1.0 — 2.0 | Critical. Breach of major pivot points. High probability of a systemic risk event. |
Legend
| Score Range | Posture | Actionable Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| 20.0 — 25.0 | Hurricane | Extreme Risk. Systemic crisis conditions. Maximum defensive posture required. |
| 16.0 — 20.0 | Full-Storm | Severe Risk. Full risk-off mode. Capital preservation is the priority. |
| 12.0 — 16.0 | Storm Warning | High Risk. Defensive positioning strongly recommended. Reduce leverage. |
| 8.0 — 12.0 | Choppy | Elevated Risk. Caution warranted; mixed signals in play. |
| 5.0 — 8.0 | Building | Moderate Risk. Early warning signals; monitor key indicators closely. |
| 0.0 — 5.0 | Calm | Low Risk. Base case stability; normal market conditions. |
Indicator Thresholds
| Indicator | Source / Expression | Amber 🟠 | Red 🔴 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro Panel | |||
| VIX Index | yfinance: ^VIX · Live spot | ≥ 15.0 | ≥ 25.0 |
| AUD/USD Exchange Rate | yfinance: AUDUSD=X · Live rate | ≤ 0.65 | ≤ 0.60 |
| EUR/USD Exchange Rate | yfinance: EURUSD=X · Live rate | 1.05 – 1.15 | ≤ 1.05 |
| Gold Price (Spot) | yfinance: XAUUSD=X · YoY% = (spot / prior−1)×100 | YoY ≥ 15% | YoY ≥ 30% |
| WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) | yfinance: CL=F · Front-month futures | ≤ $65 | ≤ $55 |
| Treasury Net Liquidity | FRED: WALCL − TGA − RRP | ≤ $6,200B | ≤ $5,700B |
| US 3Y Treasury Yield | FRED: DGS3 · Daily | ≥ 4.50% | ≥ 5.00% |
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | FRED: DGS10 · Daily | ≥ 4.50% | ≥ 4.75% |
| US 30Y Treasury Yield | FRED: DGS30 · Daily | ≥ 4.00% | ≥ 5.00% |
| High-Yield OAS | FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2 · Daily | ≥ 400 bps | ≥ 500 bps |
| Fiscal Integrity Score | Composite · SNAP + 30Y + Liquidity + Curve | ≤ 70 pts | ≤ 50 pts |
| Bank CDS (AAA Proxy) | FRED: AAA · Moody's Aaa corp. yield | ≥ 8.0% | ≥ 12.0% |
| Geopolitical Risk | GPR Index · AI-scored from news corpus | ≥ 30 | ≥ 60 |
| Micro Panel | |||
| S&P 500 Index | yfinance: ^GSPC · Live index | ≤ 4,400 | ≤ 4,200 |
| ASX 200 Index | yfinance: ^AXJO · Live index | ≤ 7,000 | ≤ 6,800 |
| Margin Debt YOY | FRED: BOGZ1FL663067003Q · 4Q delta | ≥ 15.0% | ≥ 25.0% |
| Small/Large Cap Ratio | yfinance: IWM / SPY · Live ratio | ≤ 0.42 | ≤ 0.40 |
| Put/Call Ratio (SPY) | yfinance: SPY options chain · Σputs / Σcalls | ≤ 0.70 (complacency) | ≥ 1.00 (fear) |
| SOFR OIS Spread | FRED: SOFR − TB3MS · Daily | ≥ 25 bps | ≥ 50 bps |
| Credit Card Delinquency | FRED: DRCCLACBS · Quarterly, bps | ≥ 250 bps | ≥ 300 bps |