Atlas actions
Market intelligence for informed positioning
Composite score
Loading...Urgency
--Based on Atlas score trend and VIX regime
Conviction
--0 Red, 0 Amber, 0 Green indicators
Market intelligence
Hard assets
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Digital assets
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Currencies
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Global indices
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Scenario analysis
8-week outlook ยท Ranked by probability
How scenario probabilities are calculated
Each scenario starts with a historically-grounded base rate โ how often that regime has been dominant in the post-GFC era. Soft landing (~35%) is the most common; liquidity crisis (~5%) the rarest. This is the frequency anchor โ what we'd expect before looking at current data.
Each scenario's 6โ8 indicator conditions are scored on a continuous โ1 to +1 scale โ not binary pass/fail. The score reflects both direction (does the value confirm the thesis?) and extremity (how unusual is this reading historically?). Scores are weighted and averaged into a single signal strength.
Signal strength becomes a log-scale multiplier on the prior: 4 ^ signal_strength. Full confirmation (score +1) quadruples the prior. Full contradiction (score โ1) quarters it. Neutral signals leave the prior unchanged. Results are normalised to sum to 100%.
Multiplier reference
Probabilities represent the 8-week outlook โ the likelihood each scenario best describes the dominant macro regime over the next 8 weeks. This is not financial advice.
Escalation watch
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Tools
โ ๏ธ Important Disclaimer
Atlas provides market intelligence and educational analysis. This is not financial advice. Atlas does not recommend specific securities. All investment decisions are your own responsibility. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical data and scenario probabilities are for informational purposes only.